Humble-Precipitation
0x27da7fa22aa2704ac3c1ba77233d86956e31d24a
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$17.71
Total PnL
$-676.04
Realised
$-5.24
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$6.08
$1.08
- NO
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
55 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$3.58
$-1.38
- NO
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?
53 shares @ 14.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$2.92
$-4.50
- YES
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
53 shares @ 9.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$2.70
$-2.55
- NO
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?
100 shares @ 6.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$1.15
$-5.20
- NO
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 10.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.63
$-5.37
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?
10 shares @ 21.5¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.17
$-1.99
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$9.13Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$2.97Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$1.49Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$0.79Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$2.25Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$2.70Jun 23, 23:30 UTC
- REWARD$13.51Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$5.18Jun 23, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$2.24Jun 23, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?$3.28Jun 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$3.64Jun 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$8.55Jun 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$4.86Jun 23, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$5.01Jun 23, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?$5.01Jun 23, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?$5.03Jun 23, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$10.40Jun 23, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?$4.18Jun 23, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$45.20Jun 23, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$44.78Jun 23, 14:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $13.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 07:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.