Incomplete-Nexus
0x27e04bc93388572b99e8a654f36fbf825f1f88c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$4.59
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
63 shares @ 15.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.81
$-7.19
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-3.22
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
4167 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
1612 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
1494 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-170.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
896 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
832 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
625 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
606 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?
509 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 28, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?$150.00Mar 20, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$200.00Mar 20, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?$20.00Mar 20, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$10.00Mar 18, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$50.00Mar 18, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$100.00Mar 18, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Mar 16, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$70.00Mar 16, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$50.00Mar 15, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$100.00Mar 14, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?$1.00Mar 13, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$100.00Mar 9, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$100.00Mar 9, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$5.00Mar 8, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?$10.00Mar 8, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?$5.00Mar 8, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?$20.00Mar 8, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.20 in March?$5.00Mar 3, 19:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $29.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 21:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 21:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.