Good-Natured-Counterforce
0x2806dcb1f84e40a80559654fcff1479f321305dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$1.69
Total PnL
$-227.92
Realised
$-0.23
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?
20 shares @ 4.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.69
$0.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- NO
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?
159 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 27?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UNDER
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
83 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-47.58
- YES
Will Trump say "Egg" during Memphis Roundtable?
60 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
- NO
Will Trump say "Newscum" or "Massie" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.05
- NO
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 25?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5$48.20Apr 15, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$1.00Apr 9, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26?$0.00Apr 9, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?$0.79Apr 6, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 75-79 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$0.71Apr 6, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?$7.90Apr 6, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$32.00Apr 6, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$3.70Apr 6, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's remarks not air?$0.40Apr 4, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?$0.82Apr 3, 04:53 UTC
- REWARD$4.07Apr 2, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?$0.92Apr 1, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?$0.18Apr 1, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?$1.20Apr 1, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$3.74Apr 1, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$14.60Apr 1, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$14.80Apr 1, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$0.26Apr 1, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump approval Up or Down this week?$2.60Apr 1, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?$1.18Apr 1, 10:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $5.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 18:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.