0x280b7ef5b34330415034579a642e80832b6d2dfb
0x280b7ef5b34330415034579a642e80832b6d2dfb
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$589.07
Total PnL
$-510.48
Realised
$-253.01
Win rate
54%
72 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- NO
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
34 shares @ 85.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$34.13
$5.06
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
31 shares @ 92.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$31.49
$2.42
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
29 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$29.10
$0.03
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
28 shares @ 81.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$28.43
$5.20
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
24 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$24.17
$0.94
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
24 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$23.79
$9.04
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
24 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$23.51
$0.28
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
12 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$11.96
$7.18
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
10 shares @ 91.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$10.21
$0.83
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$9.68
$0.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 13?$0.00Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16?$0.00Apr 13, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14?$0.00Apr 13, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:47 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:47 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:46 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 10:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 72 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
72 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 72 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.