Concrete-Trapdoor
0x28291ceb674a7b4e4370518e5858193b0ce94140
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
112
Open notional
$116.69
Total PnL
$-594.22
Realised
$-277.88
Win rate
17%
98 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 112- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$82.50
$52.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on August 21?
24 shares @ 42.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$19.05
$9.05
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$15.15
$5.15
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
180 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-53.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?
50 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
35 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-13.83
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
21 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
20 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.66
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
20 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.66
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
20 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.79Aug 21, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$10.37Aug 21, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on August 21?$10.41Aug 21, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?$23.79Aug 21, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?$20.00Aug 21, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?$10.51Aug 20, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?$10.24Aug 20, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.87Aug 20, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$0.59Aug 20, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$2.07Aug 20, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$2.07Aug 20, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET$0.37Aug 20, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET$2.98Aug 20, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.03Aug 20, 05:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.80Aug 20, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.05Aug 20, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.02Aug 20, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.02Aug 20, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.05Aug 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$0.39Aug 20, 05:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 98 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
98 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 17:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 05:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 98 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.