Pretty-Identity
0x2849ad49620e920a15fce96c36751dd2063fb009
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-700.58
Realised
$38.20
Win rate
13%
97 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 11?
3404 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 11?
2867 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.86
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10?
2219 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.44
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?
1650 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?
1250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-24.66
- YES
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
1233 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?
899 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-14.59
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?
500 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10?
400 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?
391 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$0.00Jul 15, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$10.32Jul 15, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.00Jul 15, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$5.33Jul 15, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$3.17Jul 15, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.07Jul 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$5.31Jul 15, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$299.64Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$76.95Jul 15, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$29.23Jul 11, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$33.23Jul 11, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$5.24Jul 8, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime?$2.00Jul 7, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?$3.00Jul 7, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: Second half draw?$2.99Jul 7, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win on 2026-07-07?$10.20Jul 7, 21:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$57.69Jul 7, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$16.98Jul 7, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$9.13Jul 7, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$15.33Jul 7, 17:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 97 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
97 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $11.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 12:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 23:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 97 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.