Nice-Connection
0x2849f88225b51b519b292c02fd07b3554b0a0329
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-14.38
Win rate
0%
139 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump say "COVID" or "Warp Speed" during remarks in Las Vegas?
25 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4?
23 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-12.86
- YES
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?
18 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?
15 shares @ 64.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?
15 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.74
- NO
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?
14 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 25?
13 shares @ 72.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.53
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13 shares @ 71.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 2?
13 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 14?
13 shares @ 74.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 18?$3.20Aug 18, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?$5.49Aug 18, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$7.52Aug 18, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?$7.44Aug 18, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?$6.87Aug 18, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?$4.91Aug 18, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$6.87Aug 18, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?$5.05Aug 18, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 18?$7.59Aug 18, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 18?$7.56Aug 18, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?$8.32Aug 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 17?$4.47Aug 18, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 18?$6.93Aug 18, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 18?$6.80Aug 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?$6.89Aug 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?$4.85Aug 18, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 18?$2.37Aug 18, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 17?$10.97Aug 18, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 17?$5.00Aug 17, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?$6.24Aug 17, 23:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
67/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 139 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
139 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 139 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.