Warlike-Marimba
0x2878048dc2c99547ca3acf475ed1be318ecf5738
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$10.57
Total PnL
$-1.63
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.24
$0.04
- NO
Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.21
$0.01
- YES
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.05
$0.05
- NO
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.05
$0.05
- NO
First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$2.01
$0.01
- YES
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
2 shares @ 93.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?$2.20Nov 11, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext BLS jobs report during government shutdown?$2.20Nov 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFirst enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?$2.00Nov 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?$2.00Nov 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?$2.00Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?$2.00Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?$2.14Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?$2.07Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Stepanivka by October 31?$2.08Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?$2.13Nov 11, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET$26.49Oct 24, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET$13.51Oct 24, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?$2.00Oct 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Stepanivka by October 31?$2.00Oct 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?$2.00Oct 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?$2.00Oct 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?$2.00Oct 23, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$2.02Oct 23, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?$2.11Oct 23, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?$2.11Oct 23, 05:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $2.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 11, 16:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.