Smug-Offset
0x287e874e8bcd59dd3ce307e1881574742a3072cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$36.0K
Realised
$87.7K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
287309 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2024$0.00
$-2.6K
- NO
2024 August hottest on record?
270932 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2024$0.00
$-5.2K
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
248272 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.8K
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
237125 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
169231 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-6.7K
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
161825 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?
150214 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
92673 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-8.1K
- YES
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
80892 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2024$0.00
$-5.4K
- YES
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
48529 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-4.6K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?$263.22Jan 29, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYLord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?$403.55Sep 29, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?$387.81Sep 26, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYLord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?$3.3KSep 18, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?$2.2KJul 30, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$293.85Jul 2, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire before July? $293.85Jul 2, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$2.1KJul 1, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$727.14Jul 1, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$1.04Jul 1, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$0.02Jul 1, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$0.40Jul 1, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$0.41Jul 1, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$0.26Jul 1, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$0.26Jul 1, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$111.10Jul 1, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$500.00Jun 30, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$500.00Jun 30, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire before July? $1.5KJun 26, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire before July? $600.32Jun 26, 14:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $788.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 9, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 29, 16:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.