Flickering-Civilian
0x289522d491674b73e04973bd7bf5716d1bb72574
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$20.52
Win rate
48%
104 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
1799 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-677.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
690 shares @ 42.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-290.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
591 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-301.22
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
510 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-265.18
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
300 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-158.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
300 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-164.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
250 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-127.48
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
207 shares @ 44.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-92.58
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
200 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-103.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
198 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-100.20
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.39Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.22Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$8.51Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.17May 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.82May 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.63May 23, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.93May 22, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.97May 21, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.95May 20, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.70May 19, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.77May 16, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.03May 15, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.26May 15, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$5.87May 13, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.65May 12, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.06May 10, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.91May 9, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.09May 8, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.48May 7, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.03May 6, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 104 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
104 closed markets, 48% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $4.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 00:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 104 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.