Illustrious-Borrowing
0x2900a1b0a3015cc8acb104f78479960c57015479
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-621.25
Realised
$35.11
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?
937 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?
625 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
504 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?
450 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-110.02
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
301 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-53.12
- NO
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
200 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-26.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
150 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-51.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?
150 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Bernie say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" 10+ times during CNN town hall on October 15?
145 shares @ 60.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-87.70
- NO
Will Mike Pence attend Dick Cheney's funeral?
139 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$130.20Feb 1, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$130.20Jan 25, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$81.63Jan 18, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$48.00Jan 14, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$100.00Jan 13, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$16.18Jan 13, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Jan 13, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Jan 9, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$50.00Jan 9, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$47.43Jan 9, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$100.00Jan 9, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$50.00Jan 9, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$44.42Jan 6, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$32.70Jan 6, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.30Jan 6, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.30Jan 6, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.30Jan 6, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.90Jan 6, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.30Jan 6, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$0.30Jan 6, 03:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $23.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 26, 16:16 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 1, 20:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.