Identical-Fail
0x2929e7b306ed36a72f4ad865b58a6281a69d59bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.6K
Realised
$362.66
Win rate
100%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
1071 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
522 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
494 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-141.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
401 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
373 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
360 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-61.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
349 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-67.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
339 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-128.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
271 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-52.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.06Jul 19, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.06Jul 19, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$17.52Jul 19, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$43.23Jul 19, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$10.47Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$20.84Jul 16, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.07Jul 16, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.06Jul 16, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.06Jul 16, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Jul 16, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$155.47Jul 16, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.07Jul 16, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.07Jul 16, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$10.50Jul 16, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$10.50Jul 16, 20:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $15.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 23:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.