Moist-Overshoot
0x296bf7b8fcaf2b4e42177089029aab9136293703
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$6.38
Total PnL
$-6.94
Realised
$-0.10
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Solana reach $140 June 29-July 5?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.14
$0.00
- NO
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 3?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$1.09
$0.00
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in June?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
1 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on July 2?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will 60 to 79 tornadoes occur in the United States in November?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-0.61
- YES
Will Irma Rosibel Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will Ciprian Ciucu get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.58
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $140 June 29-July 5?$4.45Jul 2, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $140 June 29-July 5?$5.60Jul 2, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$3.90Jul 2, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.00Jul 2, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 2, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 3?$7.90Jul 2, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 3?$9.00Jul 2, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "History" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?$1.07Jul 2, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on July 2?$5.96Jul 2, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add at least 200k jobs in June?$1.00Jul 2, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on July 2?$7.00Jul 2, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?$1.01May 18, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMNAC Breda vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5$1.04May 18, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?$1.06May 18, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 11?$1.09May 18, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$1.13May 18, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?$5.99May 10, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?$7.00May 10, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYNAC Breda vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5$1.04May 10, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 11?$8.20May 10, 16:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $5.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 13:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 04:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.