Mad-Schnitzel
0x2992b8a5a625dc9c405d78f05dd7ea294f3a301f
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$2.56
Total PnL
$-501.21
Realised
$-4.01
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.56
$1.56
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
1181 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-38.96
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
903 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-49.95
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
378 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-209.64
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
90 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-47.27
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
75 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.89
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
71 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.97
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$0.02Mar 4, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?$0.79Mar 4, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?$0.83Mar 4, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?$0.62Mar 4, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?$0.61Mar 4, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$45.24Mar 4, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?$8.15Mar 4, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$26.34Mar 4, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?$4.64Mar 4, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$2.96Mar 4, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$3.14Mar 4, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$129.40Mar 2, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$65.78Mar 2, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$59.15Mar 2, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 2, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$4.47Mar 1, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$54.29Mar 1, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?$5.00Mar 1, 20:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $34.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 15:17 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 15:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.