Circular-Afoul-Fallingout
0x29bb1aeb34e2cd7e5b1882fd388c7f91212ef0f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$5.5K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-174.57
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?
2000 shares @ 96.7¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$1.9K
$-27.00
- NO
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
5975 shares @ 46.4¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.7K
$-1.0K
- YES
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
1293 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$291.59
$-5.95
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
1553 shares @ 16.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$256.19
$-6.79
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?
300 shares @ 88.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$255.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
6404 shares @ 6.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$224.15
$-189.29
- YES
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?
1570 shares @ 5.4¢·now 9.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$146.83
$62.17
- YES
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?
1061 shares @ 14.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$143.17
$-9.77
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
620 shares @ 16.1¢·now 16.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.61
$2.77
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
1076 shares @ 8.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$80.70
$-7.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.19Aug 20, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?$5.00Aug 20, 02:06 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.92Aug 20, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$84.37Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$57.67Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?$0.55Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$0.40Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.60Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?$0.70Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$0.40Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 06:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.