Instructive-Enclosure
0x29bcb7ae284d68e1b8de2a75b62a7204a675e100
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
196
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.15
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 196- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
84317 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-164.33
- YES
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 8?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20?
1400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.69
- YES
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
1100 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?$1.81Jul 10, 07:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.59Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?$6.15Jul 8, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$10.29Jul 8, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$11.47Jul 7, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?$5.17Jul 7, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$1.95Jul 7, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?$3.09Jul 7, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$3.11Jul 7, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.09Jul 7, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 6?$3.51Jul 6, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.41Jul 6, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 6?$3.02Jul 6, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?$3.18Jul 5, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?$1.79Jul 5, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?$1.77Jul 5, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?$0.00Jul 5, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$1.14Jul 5, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$1.15Jul 5, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.50Jul 5, 05:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 08:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.