Smug-Probability
0x29d53ca468f4e0edcdf317bc9e59251f5bae89af
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-203.91
Realised
$11.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24?
6041 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-47.19
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 17?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- CAVALIERS
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
100 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-43.00
- NO
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-64.00
- KNICKS
Spurs vs. Knicks
60 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-32.40
- YES
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?
17 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- GRIZZLIES
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- MOST WANTED
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)
2 shares @ 93.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMLoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Winner$4.76Jun 10, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$64.00Jun 10, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Winner$1.02Jun 10, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$32.40Jun 6, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$1.69May 25, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$3.46May 25, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$37.85May 25, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?$80.00May 18, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?$79.76May 18, 07:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?$80.00May 12, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?$70.96May 12, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?$8.88May 12, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?$21.39May 5, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?$21.33May 5, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?$80.20May 5, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?$80.00Apr 27, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21?$80.00Apr 27, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21?$79.52Apr 21, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 13-19?$30.28Apr 21, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 April 13-19?$49.17Apr 21, 02:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $35.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 01:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 15:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.