Political-Subsection
0x2a064c24f2fec865f49be9139faa04cc40cb5e72
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-316.14
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
1385 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-388.76
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
1327 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-25.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1120 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-335.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
797 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-37.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
597 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-84.44
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
558 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
497 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-250.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
481 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-35.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
401 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-110.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
393 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-51.57
Recent activity
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$0.00Apr 3, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.00Apr 3, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$15.00Apr 2, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$53.00Apr 2, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$300.00Apr 2, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$300.00Apr 2, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$1.00Apr 1, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$10.00Apr 1, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$50.00Apr 1, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$50.00Apr 1, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$50.00Apr 1, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$50.00Apr 1, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$300.00Apr 1, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$200.00Apr 1, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$200.00Apr 1, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?$100.00Apr 1, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.00Mar 31, 17:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$0.00Mar 31, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$200.00Mar 31, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$96.36Mar 31, 17:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $82.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 16:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 3, 02:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.