Grouchy-Copywriter
0x2a1b16b9a7c9a3dc5a8fc6624199e9b299238a71
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-248.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?
31858 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-65.98
- YES
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
7464 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
3897 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-97.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 11?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $17.47Jan 11, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $17.48Jan 11, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $19.66Jan 11, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 11?$1.45Jan 11, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$6.76Jan 11, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLCilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?$8.58Jan 11, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $3.95Jan 10, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?$3.95Jan 10, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $15.13Jan 10, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 11?$5.00Jan 10, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 11?$8.00Jan 10, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?$5.00Jan 10, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYCilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?$10.00Jan 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Jan 10, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$53.13Jan 10, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$10.08Jan 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$10.08Jan 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $10.66Jan 9, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?$10.66Jan 9, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$38.60Jan 8, 16:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $19.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 7, 22:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 11, 14:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.