Zesty-Particle
0x2a21d3bccb4d025608ab0b54f7848d6dd83fd26a
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$819.15
Total PnL
$-667.97
Realised
$-511.96
Win rate
8%
75 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 88.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$110.75
$48.25
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 78.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$98.56
$36.06
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 21.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$26.44
$-36.06
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
150 shares @ 11.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.75
$7.25
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
164 shares @ 15.8¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.33
$-4.62
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?
150 shares @ 13.7¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.00
$-2.50
- OPENAI
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
103 shares @ 18.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.45
$-1.05
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?
55 shares @ 27.2¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
125 shares @ 50.0¢·now 11.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.25
$-48.25
- YES
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
100 shares @ 14.8¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.00
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$0.65Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$1.68Aug 18, 02:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$8.04Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran recognize Israel by December 31?$3.00Aug 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?$3.00Aug 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?$3.00Aug 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$3.00Aug 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?$2.12Aug 17, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran recognize Israel by December 31?$3.01Aug 17, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?$6.00Aug 17, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$5.00Aug 17, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?$6.00Aug 17, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?$9.53Aug 17, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?$1.04Aug 17, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$4.15Aug 17, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?$2.30Aug 17, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31?$6.75Aug 17, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$0.09Aug 17, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?$4.15Aug 17, 20:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 75 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
75 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 01:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 75 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.