Zesty-Particle
0x2a21d3bccb4d025608ab0b54f7848d6dd83fd26a
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$344.27
Total PnL
$-215.12
Realised
$-183.63
Win rate
28%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
299 shares @ 7.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.43
$-2.49
- YES
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
300 shares @ 6.8¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.50
$-3.81
- YES
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
250 shares @ 9.9¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.25
$-8.57
- YES
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
77 shares @ 21.1¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.72
$-0.43
- YES
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
200 shares @ 7.8¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31?
80 shares @ 15.6¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.34
$1.92
- YES
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
150 shares @ 10.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.25
$-1.50
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 12.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.50
$-0.15
- YES
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
100 shares @ 13.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.50
$-2.15
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
150 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.25
$0.69
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran recognize Israel by December 31?$0.09Jul 3, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran recognize Israel by December 31?$3.50Jul 3, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran recognize Israel by December 31?$5.25Jul 3, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$6.00Jul 3, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?$3.63Jul 3, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$15.13Jul 3, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$7.00Jul 3, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$1.00Jul 3, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$0.58Jul 3, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$1.22Jul 3, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$2.20Jul 3, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?$3.00Jul 3, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$22.05Jul 3, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?$6.21Jul 3, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$1.03Jul 3, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?$6.73Jul 3, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?$4.15Jul 3, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$0.35Jul 3, 19:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?$8.01Jul 3, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$6.74Jul 3, 19:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
39 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 04:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 22:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.