0x2a3be3e61e7bcbf35e86163a4bdf467c20dfe03f
0x2a3be3e61e7bcbf35e86163a4bdf467c20dfe03f
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-12.35
Realised
$26.71
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
350 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.39
- YES
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
342 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
286 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.23
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
210 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
195 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
195 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
193 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.22
- YES
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.18
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 5?
180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.18
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?$2.12Feb 11, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?$0.09Feb 11, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?$0.06Feb 11, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?$0.04Feb 11, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$0.10Feb 11, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYRobinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 11?$0.03Feb 11, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYRobinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 11?$0.47Feb 11, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $2.80 in February?$0.10Feb 11, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have less than or equal to 5 launches in February?$0.18Feb 11, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?$0.06Feb 11, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?$0.03Feb 11, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?$0.02Feb 11, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oscar Vargas win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?$0.03Feb 11, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?$0.05Feb 11, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February?$0.05Feb 11, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11?$0.50Feb 11, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 12?$0.03Feb 11, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 12?$0.07Feb 11, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?$0.20Feb 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February 11?$0.05Feb 10, 23:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 14:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.