Poised-Macaroon
0x2a448f83930efc3f839e8281b4dfc681666ae4e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$10.0K
Total PnL
$-8.8K
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
37%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.6K
$649.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.3K
$-650.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $3,400 in December?
41714 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-84.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
29293 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-136.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
29000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-161.24
- YES
GOP wins popular vote by 1.5-1.75%?
25000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?
20805 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-199.52
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
15000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-38.94
- YES
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?
14099 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-49.98
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.89Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 9, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.89Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
68 closed markets, 37% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $2.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.