0x2a4a41aff39f3b44b7656a2ce47d5b6d598a5800
0x2a4a41aff39f3b44b7656a2ce47d5b6d598a5800
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-123.00
Realised
$-11.43
Win rate
6%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
436 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-8.71
- UNDER
Spain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5
217 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-8.51
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
64 shares @ 34.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-22.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?
64 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-22.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 11?
56 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?
50 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 11?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?
40 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 11?
39 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?
35 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 8?$0.03Jul 22, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$33.65Jul 13, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$20.73Jul 13, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.22Jul 11, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.21Jul 11, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?$0.24Jul 11, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?$25.48Jul 11, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?$20.79Jul 11, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?$22.37Jul 11, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 11?$0.25Jul 11, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 11?$13.17Jul 11, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?$1.58Jul 11, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$5.71Jul 11, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?$3.03Jul 11, 04:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?$6.45Jul 11, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$5.28Jul 11, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$1.02Jul 11, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?$8.24Jul 11, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$0.66Jul 11, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$8.24Jul 11, 04:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 19:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.