Polished-Fondue
0x2a4f887b60f4e8b3cb949631b71c8aff188e2219
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-69.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders?
77 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?
47 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Isiah Pacheco score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?
30 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?
29 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
22 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
22 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 26, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?
18 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.64
- YES
Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?
11 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$0.00
$-2.45
- YES
"It's Scripted" KC Comeback Parlay
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMPackers vs. Lions$12.20Nov 28, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYPackers vs. Lions$5.00Nov 27, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYChiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5$3.00Nov 27, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?$5.00Nov 26, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYColts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5$5.00Nov 23, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?$2.64Nov 23, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?$9.75Jun 13, 14:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Giants draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?$6.90Apr 26, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?$4.99Mar 13, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?$10.00Feb 23, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?$10.00Feb 23, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?$1.00Feb 18, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders?$2.00Feb 15, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYGovernment coalition formed within 100 days of German election?$2.00Feb 15, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?$2.00Feb 14, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreens win over 15% of vote in German election? $3.75Feb 14, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xavier Worthy record 6 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?$6.67Feb 10, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill A.J. Brown record 71 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?$9.00Feb 10, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMTotal Over/Under 48.5$4.08Feb 10, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Patrick Mahomes rush for 30 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?$5.00Feb 9, 23:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $3.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 17:02 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 28, 00:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".