0x2a711e958e1ac4d6409ea14e98426492d370527e
0x2a711e958e1ac4d6409ea14e98426492d370527e
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$126.86
Total PnL
$-309.82
Realised
$-14.29
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
47 shares @ 47.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$47.06
$24.91
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
25 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$25.00
$18.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?
15 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$14.64
$10.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?
10 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$10.20
$5.81
- PISTONS
Spread: Pistons (-22.5)
10 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$10.07
$4.43
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.10
$3.26
- MIAMI MARLINS
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
5 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$5.00
$1.55
- MOUZ
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$5.00
$3.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 21?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$4.80
$1.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 20?
780 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-63.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.14Apr 23, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.03Apr 23, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.03Apr 23, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 23?$1.37Apr 23, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?$2.26Apr 23, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 23?$1.82Apr 23, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.46Apr 23, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?$2.26Apr 23, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.13Apr 23, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.75Apr 23, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.70Apr 23, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.16Apr 23, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.43Apr 23, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.64Apr 23, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?$0.21Apr 23, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 23?$2.24Apr 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 22?$33.82Apr 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 22?$2.57Apr 23, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22?$1.95Apr 23, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 23?$5.45Apr 23, 09:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 15:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 10:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.