0x2a8504868e2ba8cae68bf75bfef12e9efcb0a2c7
0x2a8504868e2ba8cae68bf75bfef12e9efcb0a2c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$76.85
Total PnL
$-477.49
Realised
$-233.97
Win rate
1%
189 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14?
77 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$76.85
$72.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 15?
2000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 14?
2000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 15?
1333 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 17?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on April 16?
741 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 16?
526 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on April 14?
480 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 17?
344 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 14?
285 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 22?$0.39Apr 22, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 22?$0.62Apr 22, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22?$0.71Apr 22, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22?$0.11Apr 22, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22?$0.14Apr 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22?$0.85Apr 21, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22?$0.16Apr 21, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 21?$0.57Apr 21, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 20?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 20?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 19?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on April 15?$0.00Apr 21, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on April 17?$0.00Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 19?$0.00Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?$0.00Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19?$0.00Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 19?$0.00Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 189 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
189 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $0.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 03:12 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 16:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 189 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.