Sticky-Larch
0x2a9af85b873ee37bd59ead2311833055567924a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-180.79
Realised
$12.50
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 5?
898 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?
343 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31?
316 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1?
238 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-30.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on May 25?
200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25?
167 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?
151 shares @ 23.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-35.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3?
151 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3?
145 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.07Jul 20, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.56Jul 20, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.05Jul 20, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.04Jul 20, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.14Jul 20, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$5.30Jul 20, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 6?$1.05Jul 5, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?$0.42Jul 5, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?$1.09Jul 5, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?$1.03Jul 5, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?$2.06Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?$2.83Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 5?$1.05Jul 5, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?$2.06Jul 5, 14:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?$5.13Jul 3, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?$1.78Jul 2, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?$2.06Jul 2, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 2?$2.05Jul 2, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?$1.05Jul 1, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?$1.05Jul 1, 15:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 13:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 12:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.