Polite-Payoff
0x2addb26c9986d137215b435a4af66c1c6c6b9b43
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$-260.64
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
7679 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
7471 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.2K
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
2375 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-284.59
- YES
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 RBC Heritage?
1543 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-97.22
- YES
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?
510 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$7.7KJun 12, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$12.24May 29, 00:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$79.92May 26, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.08May 26, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$9.77May 26, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.29May 26, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$17.32May 26, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$94.29May 25, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$125.60May 24, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$6.15May 24, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$4.99May 24, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$34.04May 24, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$3.56May 24, 12:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.45May 24, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$15.08May 24, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$8.81May 24, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$2.94May 23, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.68May 22, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$2.71May 22, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$2.70May 22, 13:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $46.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 23:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.