Blind-Leaf
0x2b5920274740ca61745eeb077587bf5bb4ff9db6
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-395.24
Win rate
11%
113 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?
271 shares @ 42.5¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$196.28
$81.22
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
165 shares @ 43.3¢·now 78.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$129.62
$58.31
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
241 shares @ 45.4¢·now 50.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$120.78
$11.65
- YES
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
241 shares @ 24.0¢·now 32.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.31
$20.52
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
145 shares @ 35.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 23, 2026$64.68
$12.63
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?
145 shares @ 35.9¢·now 35.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2026$50.87
$-1.35
- YES
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?
271 shares @ 23.8¢·now 16.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$43.21
$-21.30
- YES
Will Rafael Leao join Besiktas?
69 shares @ 4.8¢·now 50.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$34.27
$31.00
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
165 shares @ 7.0¢·now 18.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.82
$19.20
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
165 shares @ 2.3¢·now 17.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$28.58
$24.79
Recent activity
- TRADESELLVisa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?$0.01Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Sociedad San Sebastian win on 2026-07-28?$5.10Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aston Villa win on 2026-07-28?$0.00Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-07-28?$0.37Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- CONVERSIONHeart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz$392.87Jul 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw?$325.05Jul 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-07-28?$45.14Jul 28, 20:13 UTC
- CONVERSIONVisa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars)?$14.63Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYVisa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5%+?$1.06Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYVisa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 11.5%-12.5%?$13.64Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LDPR win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.17Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Party of Pensioners win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.26Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CPRF win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.26Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill A Just Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?$0.43Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- CONVERSIONKirov Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner$9.00Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?$1.77Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 113 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
113 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $14.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 113 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.