Poised-Pleat
0x2b5d77c6e83bac6b7d866b8452acb0855a253ab4
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$3.27
Total PnL
$-59.39
Realised
$6.34
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
3 shares @ 61.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$3.27
$1.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
28 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
21 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.15
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
16 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.87
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
14 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
12 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks$1.02Jul 10, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$2.04Jul 10, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.03Jul 10, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.24Jul 10, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.01Jul 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.31Jul 10, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.03Jul 10, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$1.03Jul 10, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.12Jul 10, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.01Jul 10, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.11Jul 10, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.01Jul 10, 05:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.14Jul 10, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.01Jul 10, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA Summer League: LA Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings$0.10Jul 10, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: LA Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings$2.04Jul 10, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$1.04Jul 10, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$0.50Jul 10, 03:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 18:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 16:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.