Definite-Guilder
0x2b9c0ad1851706a0401a84067053541de999900f
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$544.00
Total PnL
$-6.0K
Realised
$327.77
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6400 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$544.00
$-288.00
- SILVA
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
1628 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- RĘBECKI
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan
1200 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-204.00
- POIRIER
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier
1154 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2025$0.00
$-519.24
- MORENO
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
1135 shares @ 65.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-747.26
- NO
Fight to Go the Distance?
1000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-729.90
- SOUZA
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Souza
703 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-218.00
- MCGHEE
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGhee
666 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-153.15
- UNDER
O/U 3.5 Rounds
449 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-260.37
- DVALISHVILI
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
416 shares @ 62.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-260.87
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.