Oddball-Poison
0x2b9d677d75d42c4f08624816e298d251e8c795f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.2K
Total PnL
$-5.1K
Realised
$67.47
Win rate
34%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will "One Night Only" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
198 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$197.90
$37.52
- YES
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?
1282 shares @ 1.1¢·now 11.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$153.20
$138.63
- NO
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
145 shares @ 81.9¢·now 92.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$134.67
$15.76
- NO
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
260 shares @ 52.8¢·now 45.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$118.30
$-19.11
- NO
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?
195 shares @ 70.3¢·now 59.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$115.18
$-21.94
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
153 shares @ 82.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$113.87
$-11.46
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?
114 shares @ 76.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$113.58
$26.91
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?
175 shares @ 68.3¢·now 64.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$113.13
$-6.49
- NO
Will John Nagel be the MN-05 Republican nominee?
128 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$102.40
$3.90
- NO
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?
139 shares @ 75.7¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$99.22
$-5.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?$1.44Aug 10, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?$72.09Aug 10, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$11.20Aug 10, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?$32.43Aug 10, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 10, 2026?$2.20Aug 10, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?$48.19Aug 10, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?$1.04Aug 10, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?$70.20Aug 10, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto" - KAROL G first week album sales be less than 30k?$5.80Aug 10, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 3%-6%?$3.01Aug 10, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?$11.40Aug 10, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$27.30Aug 10, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?$8.40Aug 10, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hims say "Wearable" during earnings call?$50.48Aug 10, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?$3.40Aug 10, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?$100.00Aug 10, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$0.35Aug 10, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?$48.96Aug 10, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStandX FDV above $100M one day after launch?$15.30Aug 10, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 35% or more?$0.56Aug 10, 15:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
71 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $17.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 14:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 15:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.