Critical-Brand
0x2bc30259013ee54cb4a509d8bab9e4b9e8c37d41
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$26.48
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-664.86
Win rate
16%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 25?
21 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$21.39
$8.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on February 25?
5 shares @ 52.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$5.09
$2.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 20?
3345 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-51.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 15?
1763 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on February 24?
1439 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-32.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 17?
1043 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-23.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on February 25?
816 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-20.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 15?
795 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-170.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 14?
642 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-134.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 15?
572 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?$0.16Mar 5, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 5?$0.08Mar 5, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?$1.08Mar 3, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?$0.11Mar 3, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?$1.36Mar 3, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?$0.73Mar 3, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?$3.63Mar 3, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?$5.70Mar 3, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?$7.09Mar 3, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?$2.55Mar 3, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$1.09Mar 2, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$0.49Mar 2, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$1.07Mar 2, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$5.10Mar 2, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$7.14Mar 2, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$7.87Mar 2, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$22.28Mar 2, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$15.58Mar 2, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$22.21Mar 2, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?$4.44Mar 2, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
38 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 12:19 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 5, 11:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.