Unsightly-Young
0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$4.3K
Total PnL
$-958.19
Realised
$-46.04
Win rate
44%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
300 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$295.44
$2.17
- NO
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
470 shares @ 55.9¢·now 59.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$277.56
$14.70
- NO
Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?
320 shares @ 78.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$276.80
$27.20
- YES
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?
277 shares @ 87.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$256.45
$13.66
- NO
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
333 shares @ 64.9¢·now 76.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$253.08
$37.02
- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
265 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$253.07
$3.97
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
263 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$250.58
$0.92
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
356 shares @ 70.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$226.23
$-23.16
- NO
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
447 shares @ 50.4¢·now 47.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$212.23
$-12.95
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?
359 shares @ 43.9¢·now 39.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$140.01
$-17.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 28?$6.84Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 28?$26.23Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$157.14Jul 28, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$19.28Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$3.22Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?$3.03Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?$6.21Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$13.80Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$2.64Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$3.12Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$3.25Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?$36.62Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?$7.26Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?$6.88Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$10.50Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$1.95Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMTargu Mures: Francesca Jones vs Chloe Paquet$0.00Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$1.25Jul 28, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$1.58Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$3.50Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
45 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $19.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.