Absolute-Reluctance
0x2c57b7f3e9339a6802c58b1f4d1d1a279631c2e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$248.38
Total PnL
$-496.84
Realised
$-80.74
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
253 shares @ 98.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$243.51
$-6.61
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.75
$-2.35
- NO
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$-0.15
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
5 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.33
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?
253 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025?
198 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.66
- YES
Will NFT #1990 win the Based trading competition?
165 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.13
- NO
Will "Footballer" be said during the World Cup Draw on December 5?
160 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-14.24
- NO
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
150 shares @ 58.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-88.36
- YES
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?
147 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-49.98
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?$1.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?$1.45Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?$3.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?$4.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Senor Tilt be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?$9.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMOdds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?$12.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$13.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?$15.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$18.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump end NASA in 2025?$24.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$33.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMDan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?$34.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Putin by November 30?$35.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?$56.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?$60.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMOver $5M committed to the Makina public sale?$62.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taiki Maeda win the Orderly trading competition?$67.00Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?$75.93Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $74.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 07:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 10:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.