Formal-Tortellini
0x2c6f507b0aea51d9ef0c87f6328ebc11f444be0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$49.30
Total PnL
$-6.88
Realised
$-6.92
Win rate
10%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.77
$0.07
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
8 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$7.95
$0.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.35
$0.08
- NO
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.32
$0.00
- NO
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.28
$0.04
- NO
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.25
$0.05
- NO
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.25
$0.02
- NO
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.25
$0.00
- NO
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 93.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.24
$0.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 00:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.