Luxurious-Pimple
0x2c8a45ae5568fe2ca02c041c29fb6b07c8a65d15
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-253.90
Realised
$4.14
Win rate
44%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
306 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$171.32
$0.03
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
200 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$118.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?
140 shares @ 55.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$95.90
$18.70
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
139 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$82.69
$-0.68
- NO
Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$79.00
$29.00
- YES
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 78.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$78.65
$28.65
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?
200 shares @ 28.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$67.00
$11.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 23?
65 shares @ 74.9¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$64.15
$15.26
- YES
Will Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
200 shares @ 36.5¢·now 25.1¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$50.20
$-22.80
- NO
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$49.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$0.41Jul 23, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$3.40Jul 23, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.25Jul 23, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.70Jul 23, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$6.80Jul 23, 04:56 UTC
- MERGEIran full airspace closure by July 31?$62.00Jul 23, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$18.92Jul 23, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$3.40Jul 23, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$6.87Jul 23, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$120.00Jul 23, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$1.00Jul 23, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.25Jul 23, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.25Jul 23, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.60Jul 23, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$56.00Jul 23, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$3.40Jul 23, 00:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$23.69Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$4.40Jul 23, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$10.20Jul 23, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$13.05Jul 23, 00:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $36.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 21:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 06:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.