Plaintive-Bankbook
0x2cad814fb1acd284737b231c65b4f897f8a0c773
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$29.17
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
565 shares @ 66.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$398.35
$21.99
- NO
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
364 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$358.36
$5.35
- NO
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 16?
328 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$326.03
$0.85
- YES
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?
239 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$234.82
$1.79
- YES
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
549 shares @ 30.2¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$156.41
$-9.53
- YES
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
549 shares @ 22.6¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$120.78
$-3.48
- YES
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?
110 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.56
$-0.33
- YES
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
549 shares @ 21.5¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$107.06
$-11.20
- YES
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
549 shares @ 10.4¢·now 12.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$66.43
$9.03
- YES
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
87 shares @ 48.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.45
$17.78
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$1.30Jul 14, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$1.02Jul 14, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.27Jul 14, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.59Jul 14, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.03Jul 14, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.10Jul 14, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 01:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.22Jul 14, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$1.35Jul 14, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$1.02Jul 14, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.15Jul 14, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.19Jul 14, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.12Jul 14, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.01Jul 14, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.02Jul 14, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$1.15Jul 14, 00:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $8.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 21:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.