Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-809.68

Realised

$-35.69

Win rate

43 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 43

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
267 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
YES
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?
250 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
217 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
154 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
142 shares @ 35.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
138 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?
114 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
107 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$2.14Aug 11, 07:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$10.54Aug 11, 07:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$42.47Aug 11, 07:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$11.91Aug 11, 07:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$21.19Aug 11, 07:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$10.68Aug 11, 06:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$10.21Aug 11, 06:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$11.42Aug 11, 06:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$21.40Aug 11, 06:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$7.92Aug 11, 06:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$10.75Aug 11, 06:53 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$2.01Aug 11, 06:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$40.00Aug 11, 06:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$21.11Aug 11, 06:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$20.90Aug 11, 06:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$43.75Aug 11, 06:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$31.85Aug 11, 06:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$21.08Aug 11, 06:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$42.78Aug 11, 06:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$21.26Aug 11, 06:20 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 43 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

43 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry51 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $17.28
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 07:25 UTC
Last active: Aug 11, 07:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 43 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:19:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data