Definitive-Terminology
0x2cb5be91943be8ce8d9d5aa35eee9dfbede80483
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-764.42
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?
510 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-203.90
- NO
Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?
389 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2023$0.00
$-280.00
- NO
Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?
386 shares @ 71.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-276.52
- YES
Will Donald Trump say "Melania" during Crypto Summit on Friday?
22 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMANO wins 33% or more of vote in Czech election?$0.00Feb 9, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.5KDec 10, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.5KDec 10, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.5KDec 10, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.5KDec 9, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $2B committed to the Monad public sale?$8.92Nov 22, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $2B committed to the Monad public sale?$8.93Nov 22, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?$177.62Oct 1, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?$177.59Oct 1, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?$98.90Oct 1, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$98.67Oct 1, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?$176.00Oct 1, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYANO wins 33% or more of vote in Czech election?$500.00Oct 1, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?$143.07Oct 1, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?$533.18Oct 1, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?$203.90Sep 22, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$98.27Sep 20, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?$900.00Sep 20, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$99.90Jun 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$100.00Jun 28, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $370.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 20, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 9, 15:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.