Cumbersome-Integrity
0x2d15c20525ff224a5d391942bc21dbd2627d4a14
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$51.82
Total PnL
$-8.14
Realised
$1.32
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?
33 shares @ 39.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$15.07
$2.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?
32 shares @ 33.3¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$12.83
$2.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?
22 shares @ 35.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$9.40
$1.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?
27 shares @ 19.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$6.43
$1.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?
34 shares @ 18.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$6.21
$-0.04
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 21?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?
770 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.38
$-0.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?
22 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.13
$-4.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 21?
16 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.07
$-0.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$6.50Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 21?$9.53Jul 21, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 21?$9.63Jul 21, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?$4.43Jul 21, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?$0.97Jul 21, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 21?$1.05Jul 21, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?$7.99Jul 21, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?$13.31Jul 21, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?$5.41Jul 21, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$10.90Jul 21, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 21?$1.03Jul 21, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?$1.40Jul 21, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?$48.80Jul 21, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?$50.13Jul 21, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 21?$5.00Jul 21, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 21?$5.00Jul 21, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?$5.24Jul 21, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?$9.64Jul 21, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 22?$9.78Jul 21, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 22?$10.22Jul 21, 16:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $21.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 08:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.