Equal-Nightingale
0x2d6b6214cffdee7117402f9805e642218668130c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-221.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Justin Rose win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-9.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on August 20?
10 shares @ 97.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2025$0.00
$-9.74
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 16?
10 shares @ 99.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-9.95
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on August 11 at 5PM ET?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-9.90
- NO
Will PSG vs. Tottenham end in a draw?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025$0.00
$-8.30
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2025$0.00
$-4.75
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on August 22?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.80
- UP
XRP Up or Down - August 21, 10PM ET
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.85
- NO
Solana above $190 on August 22?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Bitcoin above $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET?
5 shares @ 97.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2025$0.00
$-4.89
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Miami have a white Christmas?$74.82Dec 31, 03:03 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.00Dec 17, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Miami have a white Christmas?$74.51Dec 17, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMTrump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?$5.00Dec 16, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?$5.00Oct 2, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?$5.00Oct 2, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: September$5.00Oct 2, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.75Sep 30, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.80Sep 30, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.85Sep 30, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.90Sep 30, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$0.95Sep 30, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - September 29, 6AM ET$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - September 29, 7AM ET$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 29?$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 29?$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on September 29?$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on September 29?$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4AM ET$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - September 29, 5AM ET$5.00Sep 30, 02:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 29, 09:12 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 31, 03:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.