Wallet digest

active

Activity score

65/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

137

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-566.46

Realised

$26.07

Win rate

90%

40 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 137

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
67 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-11.35
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
59 shares @ 71.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-42.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
40 shares @ 69.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-28.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
32 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-24.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
31 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
30 shares @ 66.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
27 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-2.14
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
26 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-7.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
25 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-9.44
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:41 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:40 UTC
SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:38 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$12.93Jul 2, 04:38 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$13.25Jul 2, 04:08 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$15.00Jul 2, 04:03 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 03:57 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 02:59 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 02:59 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 02:59 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$15.00Jul 1, 10:51 UTC
SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$15.00Jul 1, 10:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$0.98Jul 1, 10:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$13.72Jul 1, 10:08 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$15.00Jul 1, 10:08 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.00Jul 1, 09:50 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.72Jul 1, 09:40 UTC
SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.00Jul 1, 09:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

85/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

90% win rate over 40 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

40 closed markets, 90% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity58 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry79 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $4.34
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 18, 12:07 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 04:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 40 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:06:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data