0x2d91c9a020cea181557bbfc3241b411cdf3cf592
0x2d91c9a020cea181557bbfc3241b411cdf3cf592
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$87.31
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$14.54
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?
42 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$42.00
$9.24
- YES
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.00
$10.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$7.10
$2.27
- YES
Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City?
20 shares @ 41.0¢·now 25.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$5.18
$-3.02
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$5.07
$0.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13?
5 shares @ 94.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$5.06
$0.26
- YES
Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$0.93
$-4.07
- YES
Will Enilton Rodrigues win the Governor of Maranhão election?
68 shares @ 20.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.72
$-13.31
- YES
Will Dirceu Ten Caten win the Governor of Pará election?
20 shares @ 33.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.55
$-6.05
- YES
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
50 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.27
$-15.23
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$28.23Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?$4.62Jun 24, 14:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.51Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$5.17Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.29Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$5.02Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$16.45Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$6.40Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.02Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $0.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 13:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.