Insignificant-Forelimb
0x2e1f908b32bced89c0010fad8f35c469cfbd8fde
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$533.13
Total PnL
$143.87
Realised
$161.32
Win rate
60%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- NO
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
235 shares @ 70.6¢·now 77.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$181.99
$16.26
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.54
$2.81
- NO
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?
10 shares @ 73.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.05
$1.71
- NO
Will 230-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
9 shares @ 94.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$8.95
$0.45
- YES
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
223 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.69
$-9.14
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
8 shares @ 92.1¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.01
$0.27
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.00
$0.00
- YES
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
11 shares @ 81.8¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.97
$-1.02
- NO
Will 220-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
8 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$7.97
$1.65
- NO
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 29, 2026?
8 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.64
$0.76
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?$0.45Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$0.88Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$0.23Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$0.11Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$1.10Jul 29, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$4.68Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$0.00Jul 28, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$3.08Jul 28, 01:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 24, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?$8.50Jul 27, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$2.11Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$0.29Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?$0.42Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$0.31Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?$0.34Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$2.81Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$0.62Jul 26, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
87 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 08:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.