Complicated-Analogy
0x2e41d5e1de9a072d73fd30eef9df55396270f050
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$8.29
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?
4 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$4.29
$3.00
- YES
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$4.00
$3.00
- YES
Trudeau out in 2024?
6178 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-1.9K
- NO
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
3125 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 4.0% or more?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
246 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-8.62
Recent activity
- REWARD$0.30Dec 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau out in 2024?$853.66Dec 16, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau out in 2024?$283.07Dec 16, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau out in 2024?$278.88Dec 16, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau out in 2024?$38.03Dec 16, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrudeau out in 2024?$399.79Dec 16, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMKamala flips a 2020 Trump state?$2.9KNov 9, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMKamala wins 276-262 - PA, NV, MI, WI $0.00Nov 7, 15:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?$7.7KNov 7, 15:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?$16.5KNov 7, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?$1.0KNov 7, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?$45.00Nov 7, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?$427.52Nov 7, 01:27 UTC
- REWARD$0.48Nov 7, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?$2.21Nov 6, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?$5.00Nov 6, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?$5.00Nov 6, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?$50.00Nov 6, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?$0.71Nov 6, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Republican win Maine Presidential Election?$28.06Nov 6, 07:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $760.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 03:47 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 17, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".