Probable-Catch
0x2e8152f26adc883670fa1e767a16205750d5c854
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$4.93
Total PnL
$-18.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
59 shares @ 8.8¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.93
$-0.27
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
1896 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-948.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
1896 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-948.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
1895 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-947.50
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
1891 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-945.50
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
1891 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-945.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
1891 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-945.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
1890 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-945.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1889 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-944.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
1889 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-944.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.19Mar 27, 02:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.00Mar 27, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA reach $272 in February?$2.01Mar 27, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA reach $272 in February?$2.00Feb 5, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?$1.02Feb 5, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.11Feb 5, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine hits Moscow by January 15?$2.10Feb 5, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.00Feb 5, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?$1.00Jan 9, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by January 15?$2.00Jan 9, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$1.9KDec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$0.00Dec 12, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$1.9KDec 12, 04:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $180.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 12, 03:32 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 02:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".