Standard-Miscommunication
0x2e8db9c2ebe3b5e317dce2c7d1b99e2b2b3c3bb6
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.42
Total PnL
$-939.44
Realised
$-11.80
Win rate
2%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
10 shares @ 4.5¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.42
$-0.03
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
198 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
68 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
47 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
35 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
35 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.35
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
35 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.12
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
33 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.74
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
33 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:35 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$4.10Aug 18, 00:03 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$2.60Aug 17, 23:47 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$1.87Aug 17, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$3.02Aug 17, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.55Aug 17, 23:16 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.66Aug 17, 23:15 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$2.76Aug 17, 23:02 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$2.55Aug 17, 22:51 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$2.55Aug 17, 22:35 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 22:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
48 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 18:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.