0x2e8ee18b940a87270cd89b6a9f7870e0903b5b53
0x2e8ee18b940a87270cd89b6a9f7870e0903b5b53
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$69.34
Realised
$6.5K
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?
4025 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-277.75
- NO
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B?
3472 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-277.76
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
3333 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-166.65
- NO
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
3086 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-277.76
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
2750 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-277.76
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
2572 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-231.47
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
2137 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-277.76
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1736 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-277.75
- NO
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1736 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-277.70
- YES
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?
1634 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-277.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?$3.7KAug 8, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$1.0KAug 8, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B?$506.33Aug 8, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$394.29Aug 8, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$263.66Aug 8, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$211.59Aug 8, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 29 2026?$144.02Aug 8, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$104.37Aug 8, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$99.20Aug 8, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?$82.66Aug 8, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?$82.11Aug 8, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?$75.47Aug 8, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.8% in June?$65.38Aug 8, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?$63.11Aug 8, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$58.84Aug 8, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$54.24Aug 8, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$53.41Aug 8, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.7% in June?$52.05Aug 8, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$50.31Aug 8, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 and 21 cents?$48.22Aug 8, 06:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $21.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 09:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 07:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.