Academic-Hubris
0x2ef2f13f30e523197e9e66afa2f2620f02fbfaa5
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.70
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$600.12
Win rate
74%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.70
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 23?
3790 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-47.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12?
2300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18?
1408 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23?
1390 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 20?
1350 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 28?
1240 shares @ 23.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-292.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?
1198 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?
999 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.29
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$7.37Jul 23, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$10.47Jul 23, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$5.64Jul 23, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$5.39Jul 23, 03:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$2.68Jul 23, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$2.41Jul 23, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$3.25Jul 23, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$4.77Jul 23, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$3.41Jul 23, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$1.50Jul 23, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.42Jul 23, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$1.46Jul 23, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$1.10Jul 23, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$4.09Jul 23, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.97Jul 23, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.33Jul 23, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$1.04Jul 23, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$6.28Jul 23, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$6.39Jul 23, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$12.66Jul 23, 02:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
53 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 03:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.